Who Have Been the Premier League’s Least Reliable Favourites So Far This Season? 

The 2025/26 Premier League season is motoring towards its conclusion, and after matchday 25, there is still plenty to play for. At the summit, Arsenal may have thought they had one hand on a first title in 22 years when they sat nine points clear of Manchester City, which was trailing against reigning champions Liverpool at Anfield with just ten minutes remaining.

Then, Bernardo Silva’s bundled equaliser, coupled with Erling Haaland’s nerveless penalty, handed Pep Guardiola’s side a scarcely believable 2-1 victory. 

Dortmund built him, now here’s to destroy them. Haaland +250 to score the first of the match. pic.twitter.com/bFp1mTyhGM

— Lucky Rebel (@LuckyRebel__) November 5, 2025

Manchester Remain in Contention… Just 

The result cut Mikel Arteta’s side’s lead in the title race down to six points, and with the two protagonists set to meet in a crunch clash in April, that lead could effectively be just three points. That means the Gunners need to slip up just once, and the door would be open for Guardiola’s Blues to claim a fifth Premier League crown in six years. But despite how tight things could get at the top, online betting sites are currently focused on what is: that six-point gap. 

The latest odds from the popular Lucky Rebel Sports Book currently make the table-topping Gunners a mightily short 2/11 favourite to end their 22-year wait for the Premier League title. City, meanwhile, are 4/1 outsiders to reel in their rivals and steal the trophy from under their noses. But so far this season, betting on favourites hasn’t always been the smartest move. 

All year long, short-priced favourites have slipped up, handing the bookies huge windfalls and leaving punters let down by what they thought were sure-fire winners. We’re here to ensure that you don’t fall into the trap. Here are two Premier League teams you should think twice about backing, especially as favourites. 

Liverpool’s Disastrous Campaign 

Reigning champions Liverpool have already lost eight games this season, double the total they racked up in the entirety of last season as they waltzed towards the title. On seven of those occasions, they were the betting favourites, and in six of those games, they were considered odds-on favourites – meaning that they were priced at even money or shorter. In fact, if you’d have placed a seven-fold accumulator on the games the Reds have lost as favourites this term, you’d have secured whopping odds of 17,500/1. 

But that’s not all. On six other occasions this term, Liverpool have been held to draws, and they were priced as odds-on favourites in five of them. They were as short as 1/5 to beat relegation-threatened Burnley on January 17th but were forced to settle for a draw after Marcus Edwards’ brilliant second-half equaliser cancelled out Florian Wirtz’s opener. Since then, the Reds have lost two of their last three, and guess what? Yep, they were favourites on both occasions. 

The point is then: Liverpool simply cannot be trusted if you’re looking for safety in your weekend accas. At home, on the road, against good teams, against bad teams, you simply cannot rely on them. This season, Arne Slot’s side have beaten Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Inter Milan, Arsenal, Tottenham, and Aston Villa. However, they have also not beaten any newly promoted team: Leeds, Burnley, Sunderland – all able to take points off the Reds. Back them at your own risk. We certainly wouldn’t advise it. 

Unreliable Newcastle

Newcastle’s resurrection under Eddie Howe over the last three seasons has been one of the stories of the Premier League. The former Bournemouth boss – armed with billions from the Saudi Investment Fund – has managed to lead the Magpies to UEFA Champions League qualification twice in the last three seasons. However, this season, things have taken a turn for the worse. 

In the summer, the Toon Army was robbed of its prized asset as Alexander Isak departed for Liverpool in a bad-blood-filled £125m British record transfer. Howe attempted to reinvest that cash into the first team squad, signing the likes of Nick Woltemade, Yoann Wissa, and Anthony Elanga for huge sums of money. But unfortunately, none of them have truly delivered a return on the lofty investment. 

As a result, Newcastle currently find themselves in tenth place in the Premier League table. And what’s worse is, they have let punters down time and again when being installed as favourites. The Toon have won just ten of their 26 games this term. That means that there have been 16 games in which they failed to win, and in ten of them, they were the favourites. 

Most of Newcastle’s woes have come on the road. The Magpies have won just three games away from home all season, the sixth fewest total in the entire division. Defeats to the likes of Brighton, West Ham, Brentford, and Sunderland have turned the mood sour on Tyneside, and while form has been somewhat better at St. James’ Park, there has been cause for concern in recent weeks. 
Brentford managed to claim a famous double of the Geordies when they secured a 3-2 victory on Tyneside on February 7th, a game which the Toon were a 9/10 favourite to win. As such, we wouldn’t advise relying on them at any point between now and the end of the campaign.