Alexander Korsager on Outsmarting the Market: Why Data Is Changing How UK Bettors Gain an Edge

You can still beat the betting market. That has not changed. What has changed is the margin for error. The UK market is larger, faster and far more informed than it was even five years ago. Prices move quickly, and information spreads even quicker. Casino.org Chief Gaming Officer Alexander Korsager says the edge now sits with bettors who understand numbers and react before everyone else does.

The conversation with Korsager circles around a simple idea. Modern betting markets behave less like pub debates and more like trading environments. The question is not who you think will win. The question is whether the price reflects the real probability.

The UK Market Is Bigger and Faster Than Ever

Q: The UK betting market feels very different from a decade ago. What changed?

Alexander Korsager:
“The sheer scale of it. The UK market today is enormous. When you look at the numbers, you realise this is not a niche hobby space anymore. You are operating in a financial ecosystem with millions of participants.

Q: How many millions of participants?

“There were about 13.5 million active online gambling accounts last year, and real-event betting yield rose 5 percent year-on-year to almost hit £600 million in the first quarter of 2025. That amount of liquidity means thousands of bettors are analysing the same odds at the same time.

“The UK Gambling Commission’s official statistics show total gross gambling yield in Great Britain reached just shy of £17 billion for the year ending March 2025, and remote gambling accounted for just about £7 billion of that. Online real-event betting alone produced about  £2.5 billion in gross gambling yield.

“When you have that many people looking at the same markets, you just can’t get away with soft pricing. Some bettors are professionals now, they do this for a living. They don’t bet on sentiment, they use data. Bottom line, emotion does not drive the market anymore. Information does.”

Efficient Markets and the Speed of Information

Q: That sounds a lot like financial markets. Is that a fair comparison?

Alexander Korsager:
“It is very similar. Betting markets react to information the same way the financial markets do. News comes in and the price adjusts. Whether it’s the gold price or a player pulling up injured with a hamstring, the market takes all of it into account.

“And that’s not me saying so. Academic research supports that view. A 2024 study analysing informational efficiency in betting markets found that horse-racing odds adjust just about instantly when new public information becomes available. The research shows betting markets absorb information like a sponge and mispricing windows disappear just about instantly.

Q: The game changed, then?

“Oh, absolutely. Ten years ago, you could gain an advantage simply by knowing more than the average guy at the tote. Thanks to the phone in your pocket, that advantage has all but disappeared. Everyone has access to the same stats now. Facebook and X now deliver the same push notifications to everyone instantly.”

“So the edge moved somewhere else. It moved into interpretation and speed. You need to recognise when the market reaction goes too far or when it has not gone far enough.”

Q: So the edge still exists, but it looks different?

Alexander Korsager:
“Exactly. People imagine huge mistakes sitting in the market waiting to be exploited. That is not the reality anymore. The edge now is small. You are not beating the market by ten percent every weekend. You are spotting small pricing errors before the rest of the market reacts. It’s a long-term, cumulative game.”

Where Mobile Platforms Change the Game

Q: You mentioned phones and social media. What impact have mobile phones had?

Alexander Korsager:
“A fundamental one. The phone changed the rhythm of betting. Mobile platforms are now the default way people interact with the market. Bettors check prices during matches and place wagers in play in real time.

“Your grandfather had to go to the bookmakers on the morning of the big game, and that was that. Pray your team wins and collect on Monday. Now, players are watching a match and making moment-by-moment betting decisions right there on their phone. A goal goes in, or some guy gets a red card and you can see the prices move immediately. Everyone with a phone is looking at the same market.”

Q: And where does the market differentiation lie?

“Platform choice is more a matter of preference than anything else. Platforms all offer more or less the same thing, so the individual relies more on smaller, side services that can offer differentiation. There’s a lot of headline advertising and marketing hype out there, all trying to grab attention, but the devil is in the details, and at the end of the day, players choose a platform that suits them and their style.

“In that environment, structured comparisons between mobile platforms have become increasingly common. Bettors review how operators differ in withdrawal speed, payout terms and mobile usability.

You see that clearly in casino.org’s evaluations of UK mobile casinos and betting environments that break down bonuses, payment methods and mobile performance. according to Casino.org UK some mobile casinos are better for Apple pay, while others give a better live casino experience, for example. It’s really all there on the website. It is incredibly well curated.

“None of those differences automatically makes one casino better than another. They simply create slightly different playing environments for different types of bettors.”

Q: And these comparisons offer value to bettors?

Alexander Korsager:
“Oh, Absolutely. The interesting part about those comparisons is that they encourage bettors to think analytically. You start looking at implied probability, margins and pricing differences between operators.”

Structured Methods Beat Instinct

Q: Where does instinct fit into this modern market?

Alexander Korsager:
“Instinct is great for watching football with friends. But it’s a lousy way to approach the betting arena. Most bettors attach emotion to their wagers. They support a team. They want that team to win. The market does not care about loyalty. You can wear your Chelsea shirt to the pub, but you really hope they can take down Arsenal, but at the end of the day, the wallet and the heart don’t agree. The people who can leave their loyalty for the game and not the casino are the ones who get ahead.

“But you can still hedge a bet. There are guides explaining matched betting, and they show how bettors cover outcomes using bookmakers and exchanges so that promotional bonuses convert into predictable profit.

“The value of matched betting is not just the profit. It is the mindset. You stop thinking about the match result. You focus on numbers, liability and probability. You remove narrative from the decision. You only focus on dancing on the edge between price and probability.”

Tracking Data and Learning From Results

Q: You also talk about tracking personal betting data. Why does that matter?

Alexander Korsager:
“Because memory lies. Most bettors remember big wins and forget a series of setbacks. Every golfer will tell you about the hole-in-one, but they forget the stream of double bogeys. Or always complain about how bad they are, but never recall the good shots. Tracking your data reveals the true patterns.

“Take poker. Poker players have used tracking software for years now to analyse detailed statistics about their own behaviour at the table. HUD-based tracking tools reveal patterns that players often miss without data.

The Real Edge in Modern Betting

Q: Then, the bottom line question: Is it still possible to beat the market today?

Alexander Korsager:
“Sure, you can still beat it. If betting markets were perfect, bookmakers would not care who you are. The fact that sharp bettors still get limited tells you everything you need to know.

“What disappeared years ago was the easy edge. With £600 million in online real-event betting yield generated in a single quarter, a load of people all look at the same numbers at the same time, which means the edge today is measured in percentages, not miracles.

“But the bottom line is the modern betting market rewards speed, discipline and analytical thinking. Emotion still drives sports fandom. Leave it for the game. The betting market runs on numbers.