How to Bet Profitably on College American Football: NCAAF Betting Tips
Who doesn’t like unpredictable games, high-octane offences, and smash-mouth sports?
It is no wonder that college American football has gained a cult-like following.
Deep rooted in traditions and bitter rivalries, die-hard fans from all around the world go the extra mile to watch and root for their favourite teams.
Often labeled as the purest form of the sport due to college players being forbidden to play under contracts, emotion and passion drive fans in droves to watch and bet on this sport.
College American football is insanely popular: how many sports do you know that is televised at college level?
Ask yourself: do you have what it takes to thrive among this passionate bunch?
The answer should be a resounding “YES!”, and if it’s not, it will be after reading this NCAAF betting tips guide.
I can understand if you are a bit tentative when betting on a sport that is often as unpredictable as the weather.
You may ask – with a seemingly endless number of conferences, each with dozens of teams, where do I begin?
We will ease your worries one step at a time – first, master the basic principles, then gather the necessary intel, and finally develop a betting strategy to grow your bank account in the long-term.
Choosing the Right Types of Bet
It is common to assume that betting on the college game is the same as wagering on NFL.
However, it is a completely different beast – for one, the college game offers matchups throughout the week, culminating in 30+ games on Saturdays alone.
But the game is played the same way, right?
College American football is played at a faster pace, typically resulting in higher scoring games.
Rest assured, not everything is different: both college and professional American football offer the same types of betting markets, including; moneyline, spread betting, over/under, halftime lines, and parlays.
That’s a lot of choices, so how do you choose which is the right type of bet for you?
First, we’ll learn about the different types of bets before getting to the nitty-gritty aspects of analysing the most profitable types of bets.
Do you prefer to not have to deal with the hassle of spreads? Then this is the perfect bet format for you. Simply choose the winner of the matchup and be on your merry way.
The spread for college games are released between a week to a few days in advance of the match.
It features a range value for the final outcome of the game. A negative value indicates a favoured team, whereas a positive value designates the underdog.
If you bet a spread of -6.5, the favored team must win by at least 7 points for you to win the bet. This is the same as ‘handicap’ betting in the UK.
Likewise, betting on a spread of +6.5 would require the underdog to lose by 6 points or fewer to ensure your payout.
If you want to take the guesswork out of betting, then look no further!
For over/under bets, sportsbooks will release a number for the combined score of the two teams. It is up to you to determine if the final combined score will be over or under the given value.
That still involves guessing, doesn’t it? Not at all, keep on reading and below you’ll see how we can eliminate the guesswork and increase your chances by examining a few crucial factors.
Note: As the college game is more fast-paced than the NFL product, you could expect the over/under to be higher on average for college matchups.
Half-time wagers are bets that can only be placed during the half-time of a match.
It takes into account what has already occurred in the game such as the current points differential and attempts to predict the final outcome based on that.
Are you especially confident in your knowledge and predicting prowess? Then combining bets is your calling in life.
Parlays are accumulator bets where you receive a larger payout when you correctly predict the outcomes of multiple bets.
In order to maximise profit and minimise risk, it is recommended that a majority of your bets are over/under and spread.
And then when you have a sure thing on your hands, spring out that parlay bet and increase your payout. Patience is key to this approach.
If you’re serious about long-term NCAAF betting profits, then try to keep parlays or accumulators to a minimum. They are often seen as poor value, unless you can spot things that many others are missing, and are typically done for the fun or thrill of potentially landing a big win.
Watch as many games as time allows, read every article you get your hands on, and keep your ears to the ground for the latest developments.
The more knowledge and insight you gain on teams and players, the more informed you will be when placing bets.
So now that you have a feel for the game, what other resources could you use to increase the success of your bets?
You ask and I shall deliver:
Regardless of what sport you are betting on, the injury report is the most valuable resource to examine before placing a bet.
Information related to injuries to key players on different units of a team (offence, defence, or special teams), could be used to place over/under bets in your favour.
This usually involves placing an under bet if a quarterback or a key member of the offensive squad is injured and a wager on the over if the defensive squad is missing an important piece.
They say American football is as unpredictable as the weather. However, if you could predict the conditions a game will be played under, it will serve you well.
I know you may be thinking that you didn’t sign up to become a meteorologist, but bear with me.
Ideal American football weather is 15 degrees celsius with sunny skies; these are the conditions that yield the highest scoring games. It would be wise to place a bet on the over for games played under similar conditions.
On the contrary, games played under colder conditions, and especially those played with temperatures below 5 degrees celsius will yield low scoring games, dictating that a bet should be placed on the under.
Home Field Advantage
College American football enjoys one of the greatest home field advantages of any sport worldwide, with the home team winning a whopping 59.97% of games.
Regardless of how tempting it may be, you should try to avoid betting on a huge favourite on the road.
This is a recipe for disaster, steer clear!
After reading everything so far, you might still be thinking “football is football.” The roster is where the college game differs greatly from the pros.
Players often leave teams at the end of the season to turn professional and play in the NFL, or fail to make it and turn to pastures new.
What does this mean for you?
With as much as 50% of the team’s roster being replaced every season, you can’t rely the statistics of previous seasons to predict outcomes of games.
Each year is a new beginning for you as a bettor, and each team as a whole.
Everyone is learning the strengths of weaknesses of teams as the season progresses, learn to take solace in that fact.
College Football Betting Strategies
After having mastered the central concepts, it is time for you to learn some betting strategies.
Betting on underdogs playing at home, taking the over on shootouts (high-scoring games), and betting against the worst unit on the field will all help you milk these games.
Underdogs Playing at Home
Sometimes it’s important to turn to professional analysts and see what tips they offer.
This is especially true when home teams are heavy underdogs.
There is a school of thought that states that you should always bet on the home team if the road team is favoured by 7 or more points in the spread.
Parity and home field advantage dictate that the point spread will seldom be covered by the favoured team and you might be safe betting on the underdog playing at home.
Needless to say, if it was as simple as that then everyone would be doing it and the bets don’t necessarily provide value every time.
However, it’s worth keeping home advantage in your thinking in conjunction with the rest of your research and findings.
Taking the Over on Shootouts
I cannot repeat this enough: college American football games are high scoring affairs.
This leads to a lot of games exceeding 100 total points. As such, when two high-powered offences meet, the over/under values offered by sportsbooks will be sky high.
Despite that, you could still consider betting on the over.
Shootouts tend to feature games with poor defences and will more often than not exceed the over/under total.
Remember: only bet if the odds provide value. Don’t just take the bet because you’ve read a tip online saying you to bet on it in the hope that it wins. Find value, not just winners.
Bet Against the Worst Unit
Determine the worst unit – or position – on the field.
Is it the starting quarterbacks, defensive lines, offensive lines, wide receivers, cornerbacks, running backs, etc.? And then bet against them.
If an aspect of the offence such as the quarterback, offensive line, running backs, or wide receivers are the weak point, confidently bet on the under value for that team if the odds offer value.
The opposite is true and a wager could be placed on the over value if the weakest unit on the field is a part of the defense such as cornerbacks or defensive lines.
There are an uncountable number of factors that affect the outcome of every college American football matchup.
As a person equipped with knowledge of key resources and the perfect NCAAF betting strategies, you are more than prepared to get ready to succeed in the world of college American football betting.
The effort and dedication you put towards success will directly correlate with your results.
Now all you have to do is watch the games, analyse them objectively (without bias) and make the correct calls based on good prices.
You got this far, keep going until you reach the top!